Political Insider | ajc.com (Free subscription) | 09/11/2008
Democrats hyperventilating about the September rise of Republican John McCain should find a paper bag and relax, says Alan Abramowitz. Barack Obama has this one in the can, the Emory University political scientist says. Abramowitz’ call for November: A popular...
Miami Herald (Free subscription) | 10/03/2008
... Strong wrote in the letter, which was obtained by The Herald in a public records request.Alan Abramowitz, the local administrator for the Department of Children & Families, which houses more than a dozen children at the home, said in an e-mail to DCF workers Wednesday that caseworkers will increase the number of their visits to children there ''until we can address Dr. Strong's''...
The Huffington Post (Free subscription) | 09/22/2008
On the surface, the Wall Street crisis appears to favor Barack Obama's chances and to damage John McCain's. Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz makes the case succinctly: "I don't see how this crisis doesn't play into Obama's hands....this issue seems to completely undermine the whole Republican argument that less government regulation is what the economy really needs. When people...
RssDaily (Free subscription) | 09/14/2008
Emory political science professor Alan Abramowitz seems to have a mathematical election model that works. Abramowitz's system has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points for every presidential election since 1988. This year, it's predicting an Obama win: 54.3 percent, versus McCain's 45.7 percent. The model isn't perfect, of course, but it does...
Grasping Reality with Both Hands (Free subscription) | 09/19/2008
... maybe none of that happened. As everyone knows, there’s sampling error associated with polling.... Alan Abramowitz points out if you look at the daily results... you see... incredible volatility.... [If they reported the daily samples] people could see that this is basically statistical noise in a stable race. But Gallup doesn’t report its daily results, they report a... three day...
Blog for Democracy (Free subscription) | 09/11/2008
Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain. This guy has correctly predicted the winner of...
AMERICAblog (Free subscription) | 09/11/2008
See, nothing to worry about . A pollster whose mathematical model has correctly predicted every winner of the White House popular vote since 1988 is banking on a decisive victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November. Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against...
Mercury Rising 鳯女 (Free subscription) | 09/10/2008
The Big Three polls are now suddenly oversampling Republicans even as Democratic registrations go through the roof: Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz is highly skeptical of the new Gallup, USA Today and CBS polls. About the latter, which showed a statistically insignificant two point lead for McCain, Abramowitz said: “One reason for the dramatic difference [...]...
Buttermilk & Molasses (Free subscription) | 09/10/2008
... wondered hard enough to do any research or reporting on it. Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz is highly skeptical of the new Gallup, USA Today and CBS polls. About the latter, which showed a statistically insignificant two point lead for McCain, Abramowitz said: "One reason for the dramatic difference between the two recent CBS polls is that the two samples...
Grasping Reality with Both Hands (Free subscription) | 08/28/2008
... or two relatively rare outlier results per month even under circumstances of total stasis. And as Alan Abramowitz points out if you look at the daily results this is actually what you see — incredible volatility with Obama’s lead oscillating violently around an average of 3-4 points. Since it’s not plausible that the public mood is really swinging anywhere near as rapidly as a very...
