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Claus Vistesen


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Is the Buck Back?

Claus Vistesen submits: CAN you feel it? That cold empty void that should have been Macro Man 's dissection of last week's flight of the buck . Of course, this only goes to show that our good MM's initial hunch was right in the sense that when he sets off on holiday fireworks spark from the sky in market land. Last week, consequently, marked the biggest USD rally (against the Euro) since...

+Vote!

Is the Buck Back?

By Claus Vistesen Copenhagen CAN you feel it? That cold empty void that should have been Macro Man 's dissection of last week's flight of the buck . Of course, this only goes to show that our good MM's initial hunch was right in the sense that when he sets off on holiday fireworks spark from the sky in market land. Last week consequently marked the biggest USD rally (against the Euro)...

+Vote!

Economic Growth in Chile

By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen There are many perspectives through which to look at economic development and growth. Geography, institutions or perhaps just plain good old physical capital accumulation are all important parameters. This small piece suggests a further metric and attempts to frame the argument with Chile as a case study. Specfifically, this note explains the process known...

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What's Next for Brazil's Economy?

Claus Vistesen submits: In case you did not notice, the Eurozone recently slipped into a near recession and so did Japan . Together with an already limping and essentially recessionary US economy this has prompted some analysts to ponder the probability of a global recession or more aptly; a significant and serious widespread global slowdown. Nouriel Roubini , who recently got some fine...

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Testing Hank Paulson's Resolve on the GSEs

Claus Vistesen submits: "When it rains, it pours" - so goes an old adage, and while the US authorities are still scrambling to figure out just what to do in the context of the erstwhile jewels, now broken, mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie Mae's foreign investors are beginning to vote, as it were, with their feet. As such, the big news so far this week must certainly be the extent to...

1Vote!

Testing Paulson's Resolve?

By Claus Vistesen Copenhagen It never rains, but it pours; so goes an old adage and while the US authorities are still scrambling to figure out just what to do in the context of the erstwhile jewels, but now broken, mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie Mae foreign investors are beginning to vote, as it were, with their feet. As such, the big news so far this week must certainly be the extent...

+Vote!

Where Now for Brazil?

By Claus Vistesen Copenhagen In case you did not notice, the Eurozone recently slipped into a near recession and so did Japan . Together with an already limping and essentially recessionary US economy this has prompted some analysts to ponder the probability of a global recession or more aptly; a significant and serious widespread global slowdown. Nouriel Roubini , who recently got some...

+Vote!

Japan - Gearing Down for a Recession

[Update: Japan contracts 2.4% in Q2 ,] By Claus Vistesen Copenhagen In my last note on Japan asked how much longer Japan could continue to fight off the incoming recession faced with a continuing shaky outlook on exports as well as a domestic economy steadily slowing down. Well, it seems as if the answer to this question can now be provided. With the recent news that industrial production...

+Vote!

Japan: Recession All but Certain

Claus Vistesen submits: In my last note on Japan , I asked how much longer Japan could continue to fight off the incoming recession faced with a continuing shaky outlook on exports as well as a domestic economy steadily slowing down. Well, it seems as if the answer to this question can now be provided. With the recent news that industrial production continues its slowdown as well as...

+Vote!

Brazil Country Outlook August 2008

Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen Brazil is a resource rich country in transition towards a much more diiversified economy where industry and high value services will begin to play an increasing role. Brazil has ample supplies of energy and agricultural products, and is currently hitting that “sweet spot” where a demographically driven growth dividend becomes available. Thus we can increasingly...

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Gobal Economy Matters and Emerginvest

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona Claus Vistesen and I are both proud and happy to be able to announce that we have been invited to work as "featured analysts" with a new Boston-based start-up - Emerginvest , whose aim is to facilitate the process for individual investors who wish to make investments in emerging markets. Manuel has also offered to contribute material covering the relevant political...

+Vote!

Japan - Gearing Down for a Recession

By Claus Vistesen Copenhagen In my last note on Japan, I asked how much longer Japan could continue to fight off the incoming recession faced with a continuing shaky outlook on exports as well as a domestic economy steadily slowing down. Well, it seems as if the answer to this question can now be provided. With the recent news that industrial production continues its slowdown as well...

+Vote!

Where Now for CEE and Baltic Currencies?

By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen Ever since the illusive credit turmoil began sentiment in the market place has been fickle and essentially, like the assets of which it consists, volatile. We started off with an adamant focus on downside risks to growth which then turned into a focus and fear of inflation. Now, as the cyclical data has turned for the worse in Europe and many places in Asia...

+Vote!

CEE and Baltic Currencies: Where Now?

Claus Vistesen submits: Ever since the illusive credit turmoil began, sentiment in the marketplace has been fickle - and essentially, like the assets of which it consists, volatile. We started off with an adamant focus on downside risks to growth which then turned into a focus on and fear of inflation. Now, as the cyclical data has turned for the worse in Europe and many places in Asia...

+Vote!

Oil, The Dollar & ECB Monetary Policy

A fallacy regarding monetary policy and oil have been spread among surprisingly many economics bloggers-including even some whose writings are normally good (meaning Barry Ritholtz and Claus Vistesen ). The idea is that the ECB by raising interest rates will in fact increase price inflation by raising the oil price (This idea, had it been true would by the way have been applicable on...