James Hamilton

The Downturn Worsens: Would Ed Leamer Agree We're in a Recession Now?

Seeking Alpha (Free subscription) | 13 hours ago

James Hamilton submits: UCLA Professor Ed Leamer recently proposed four criteria for determining whether the economy is in recession, and concluded at the time of his study (two months ago) that the U.S. had not yet crossed that threshold. But this week's data might cause him to change his mind. Professor Leamer observed that recessions are usually characterized by a 6-month drop in...

• The downturn worsens - Econbrowser

A New Model for Eurozone GDP Forecasts

Seeking Alpha (Free subscription) | 10/03/2008

James Hamilton submits: Here I relate some interesting new research on how to update economic forecasts with incoming daily data and the latest assessment of where things stand in Europe. I've spent the last week visiting the European Central Bank in Frankfurt and Eurostat in Luxembourg. Europe is becoming a very exciting area for business cycle research, with a lot of bright and energetic...

Auto Sales Continue to Deteriorate Further

Seeking Alpha (Free subscription) | 10/02/2008

James Hamilton submits: U.S. auto sales have been dismal for most of this year. And they just took a turn for the worse. The light truck category, which includes the once-trendy SUVs, continued to lead the retreat, with seasonally unadjusted September sales of light trucks manufactured in North America down 22% from August and down 31% from September 2007. Complete Story »

Real GDP Likely Fell in Q3 2008

Seeking Alpha (Free subscription) | 10/01/2008

James Hamilton submits: Calculated Risk observes that we already know the values for a significant chunk of 2008:Q3 GDP. And it doesn't look good. CR notes that personal consumption expenditures, the biggest single item in GDP, is released by the BEA monthly, so we now know two of the three monthly values that will make up this item for 2008:Q3 GDP. The graph below shows the inference...

A look at the real (slow) economy

Free Exchange (Free subscription) | 10/01/2008

... that the indefatigable U.S. consumer is finally throwing in the towel. (Hat tips: Mark Thoma , James Hamilton )

What's Responsible for the TED Spread's Recent Behavior?

Seeking Alpha (Free subscription) | 09/29/2008

James Hamilton submits: One measure that is being used to summarize the strain in financial markets is the TED spread. This is calculated as the gap between 3-month LIBOR (an average of interest rates offered in the London interbank market for 3-month dollar-denominated loans) and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. The size of this gap presumably reflects some sort of risk or liquidity...

GDI vs. GDP - Which One's a Better Recession Indicator?

Seeking Alpha (Free subscription) | 09/29/2008

James Hamilton submits: The "final" values for 2008:Q2 GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday were more disappointing than the earlier estimates. Still, the 2.8% annual growth rate for real GDP that we're now told characterized the second quarter doesn't sound like a recession. Or does it? As we teach in any introductory macroeconomics course, it is possible to think...

• Gross domestic income and recessions - Econbrowser