Symetry (Free subscription) | 11/24/2008
essay: robin hansonPhoto courtesy of Robin HansonLHC forecasts: better than horoscopes'My horoscope today says, “Focus on the small stuff.” Now, such advice does have content. It predicts that when readers interpret its words in the usual way as a guide to action, those who do what they think it recommends will, on average, feel they got more of what they wanted than those who...
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/14/2008
Now that it is confirmed that the Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, should we re-read Silas Barta’s old bits of criticism with a renewed interest? Thanks to Tex-Mex for the tip. ---------- Midas Oracle .ORG = Site Map + Archives + Best + Charts + Exchanges + Software + Links [...]
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/15/2008
- - AVG Free - Claim Win - Spybot Search & Destroy - You don’t need that one if you use Mozilla FireFox as your browser. - ---------- Midas Oracle .ORG = Site Map + Archives + Best + Charts + Exchanges + Software + Links + People + Write A Post Or A Page + How To Publish Similar blog posts: [...]
Marginal Revolution (Free subscription) | 11/06/2008
... phrase, "rationality ruin." I am, of course, more of a pragmatist and less of a Platonist than is Robin. But still, Robin is the daily tonic I wish to take.
Overcoming Bias (Free subscription) | 12/01/2008
... any robot hands, how cute". Most people who object to this scenario, object to the "fast" part. Robin Hanson objected to the "local" part. I'll try to handle both, though not all in one shot today. We are setting forth to analyze the developmental velocity of an Artificial Intelligence. We'll break down this velocity into optimization slope, optimization resources, and optimization...
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/26/2008
- - Thanks to my readers. - Thanks to InTrade, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub, etc. - Thanks to Robin Hanson, David Pennock, Lance Fortnow, Jason Ruspini, Mike Giberson, David Perry, Adam Siegel, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Nigel Eccles, Chris Hibbert, Panagiotis Ipeirotis, George Tziralis, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, Mike Linksvayer, etc. - Thanks to WordPress, FireFox, Google, Wikipedia,...
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/24/2008
---------- Midas Oracle .ORG = Site Map + Archives + Best + Charts + Exchanges + Software + Links + People + Write A Post Or A Page + How To Publish Similar blog posts: Forbes endorses the Jason Ruspini prediction markets on tax rate. Robin Hanson sends Nassim Nicholas Taleb back in the locker room, and John [...]
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/20/2008
It has disappeared into cyberspace. - No more Robin Hanson. - No more Justin Wolfers. - APPENDIX: - Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point. - Emile Servan-Schreiber didn’t like that too much, for some reason. - Robin Hanson has experienced that Boards of Advisors advise on nothing, most of the times. - Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers...
The Uncredible Hallq (Free subscription) | 11/24/2008
... have more when I look at John F. Haught’s handling of the word “faith.” Until then, I recommend Robin Hanson’s Politics isn’t about Policy post, as well as his Are Beliefs Like Clothes? Or, reflect on Daniel Dennett’s comments in _Breaking the Spell_ about how the doctrine of the Trinity may be more useful when people don’t understand it too well. Anyway, these reflections give a...
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/17/2008
---------- Midas Oracle .ORG = Site Map + Archives + Best + Charts + Exchanges + Software + Links + People + Write A Post Or A Page + How To Publish Similar blog posts: The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy [...]
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/19/2008
... InTrade CEO John Delaney rightfully spanked the posteriors of Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers) How InTrade CEO John Delaney tried to undo the great damage done to the prediction market industry by Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers) Who are the “notable exceptions” whom InTrade CEO John Delaney talked about...
Ben Casnocha: The Blog (Free subscription) | 11/17/2008
The most interesting four paragraphs I read over the weekend, from Robin Hanson (emphasis my own): We use belief conformity to show loyalty to particular groups, relative to other groups. We rarely bother to show loyalty to humanity as a...
Planet Intertwingly (Free subscription) | 11/13/2008
Here’s Robin Hanson’s advice at Overcoming Bias (by way of Tyler Cowen: Best to clear your mind and emotions of group loyalties and resentments and ask, if this belief gave me no pleasure of rebelling against some folks or identifying with others, if it was just me alone choosing, would my best evidence suggest [...]
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/04/2008
Forbes: Still, Robin Hanson, an economics professor at George Mason University who has studied prediction markets, hopes [that prediction markets] grow. “Stock markets, insurance markets, commodity markets–they used to be prohibited by gambling laws but were thought to be useful and given an exception,” says [Robin] Hanson. “We want to carve out a new set of [...]
Midas Oracle .ORG (Free subscription) | 11/07/2008
... tools. Tags: accuracy , long-term prediction markets , prediction acccuracy , prediction markets , Robin Hanson
